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The State of California Retail Real Estate

Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services' research division just released third quarter reports looking at eight California markets.

Below are submarket vacancy and rental stats on Los Angeles, Sacramento, Oakland, San Bernardino-Riverside, San Jose, San Francisco, San Diego and Orange County. According to the data, California's urban areas have fared better in the past 12 months that the suburban areas.

For example, in San Francisco's two submarkets, Marin and San Mateo counties, the vacancy rate is around 4 percent and has barely moved in the past year. Rents have remained virtually flat as well. For the year, Marcus & Millichap expects asking rents to fall 2 percent to $33.50 per square foot, while effective rents will end the year at $30.66 per square foot, a 3.2 percent decline. Similarly, in some of Los Angeles' submarkets, the vacancy rate is still below 4 percent and effective rents are down less than 4 percent.

In contrast, in some of the Inland Empire markets like South Riverside County and Palm Desert, the vacancy rate is well north of 10 percent. In South Riverside County and Colton/Redlands/San Bernardino, the vacancy rates jumped by 460 basis points and 590 basis points respectively in the past 12 months. Effective rents have dropped 8.0 percent and 7.4 percent in those markets in the last 12 months. For 2009 as a whole, the brokerage firm expects asking rents to drop 3.6 percent to $21.12 per square foot in comparison to 2008, while effective rents will fall 7.2 percent to $17.92 per square foot.

(Click on charts to get a larger view.)

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