There's an insightful post over at ULI's Ground Floor. It features Stephen Blank's thoughts coming out of last week's ULI Fall Meeting. Here's an excerpt.
2. I've learned that a lot of myths we used to believe in weren't true such as:
a. Diversification can overcome systemic risk; it can't.
b. High (credit) ratings mean high quality; ask the bondholders of AIG if they agree.
c. Global capital markets are not “coupled”; then how do you explain our global liquidity crises.
d. If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it's a duck; if that's true, then a collateralized debt obligation is “just a bond.”
e. Mathematical models can be utilized to simulate and manage risk; ask any hedge fund if they agree with this myth.
3. Confidence and trust need to be restored before money will start to flow.
4. 2009 will be the worst year since the 1991-1992 industry-wide depression; real estate will take a hit similar to stocks, bonds, and housing.
a. Values will decline, rates of return will be negative, and delinquencies and foreclosures will increase.
b. A saving grace: development has been reasonably restrained.