Commercial-mortgage backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies jumped by $2.11 billion in January and now stand a trailing 12-month high of $10.79 billion, according to data from Realpoint. Realpoint counts mortgages that are 30, 60 or 90 days overdue, ones in foreclosure and ones that are real estate owned as delinquent. Overall, the delinquent unpaid balance is now up 241 percent from a year ago and is now five times its low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007.
The total unpaid balance for all CMBS pools under review by Realpoint was $842.8 billion in January—down slightly from $846.8 billion in December. The delinquency ratio for January increased to 1.3 percent from 1.0 percent the month prior. The delinquency ratio is above 1 percent for the first time since April 2005. In January 2008, the delinquency ratio was 0.4 percent.
Realpoint expects the delinquent unpaid balance to grow to $12 billion to $15 billion before the end of the first quarter of 2009. It also expects the delinquency ratio to approach 3 percent before the end of the year.