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Investors Become More Uncertain About Current Market Cycle Phase

In May, the percentage of survey respondents who said they were “not sure” where we are in the cycle rose to 10 percent.

Readers surveyed by NREI seem to be less confident about calling which phase of the market cycle we are in than they have been in recent months. In May, the percentage of survey respondents who said they were “not sure” where we are in the cycle rose to 10 percent, up from 5 percent in March and 9 percent in February.

At the same time, more respondents think the market has hit a peak (47 percent, the highest reading since the fall of 2016). Fewer readers said we are in an expansion phase, at 35 percent vs. 36 percent in March and 39 percent in February.

Four percent of readers said the market is in a trough, the same percentage as in March. The reading was down from 8 percent in February.

NREI conducts periodic studies of the commercial real estate sector. As part of those surveys, there is always a question on the estimation of the current state of the commercial real estate cycle. A typical NREI survey garners between 200 and 400 respondents. More than half of those respondents are typically owner/partner/president/chairman/CEO or CFO-level executives.

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