Lots of Numbers--Architectural Billings, Holiday Sales, CRE Price Index, Main Street Rents

It seems like there has been a flood of numbers reported in the past two days. Here are some of the highlights.

The AIA's Architectural Billings Index took a tumble, according to an early report. (The number actually isn't due to be reported until tomorrow according to AIA's web site.). Calculated Risk has the highlights. A chart of the index is below.

(Click for larger image)


Retail Forward presented its holiday shopping forecast and it's a doozie. The research firm says the holiday shopping season could be the second worst in 42 years. The firm is forecasting a flat season on the heels of last year's 4.5 percent decline.

Here are the firm's numbers on year over year growth going back to 1998.

1998 -- 6.8%

1999 -- 8.2%

2000 -- 3.9%

2001 -- 2.2%

2002 -- 2.8%

2003 -- 6.0%

2004 -- 6.5%

2005 -- 6.8%

2006 -- 3.1%

2007 -- 2.4%

2008 -- -4.5%

2009FC -- 0.0%

The advance numbers on Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Index show the index fell 5.1 percent in July from the month before. Overall, the index is now down 39 percent from its October 2007 peak. The updated numbers and charts by market and property type will eventually be posted here. For now, check out Calculated Risk's post. The post features an interesting chart that compares the Moodys index on commercial real estate to the Case-Shiller index of housing prices. I've copied that chart below.

(Click for larger image)


Lastly, Cushman & Wakefield released its annual look at the most expensive retail streets in the world and found that rents, unsurprisingly, have fallen. Bloomberg has the skinny.

Manhattan's Fifth Avenue ranked as the world's most expensive retail address for the eighth straight year, even as annual rents dropped 8.1 percent in the 12 months through June, to $1,700 a square foot, the New York-based company said today in a report. Rents in Hong Kong's Causeway Bay declined 15 percent to $1,525. On the Avenue des Champs-Elysees in Paris, they were little changed at $1,009.


The average rent in the 274 shopping streets monitored across 60 countries by Cushman & Wakefield fell 23 percent to $213 a square foot from $276 a square foot a year earlier.

Rents declined in 147 locations, the most since Cushman & Wakefield first published its survey in 1986. They were little changed on 76 streets and rose on 51.


The biggest regional decrease was in the Asia-Pacific, with rents down 15.1 percent. In central and eastern Europe, they slid 14.7 percent. They dropped 12 percent in the U.S. and Canada and 5.8 percent in Europe as a whole.

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