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Retail Traffic



In spite of its sugar- and fat-filled glazed doughnuts, Krispy Kreme gets a good bill of health. Fiscal 2004 same-store sales rose 13.6 percent for company-owned stores and 10.2 percent system-wide, driven by an uptick in traffic and increased sales of doughnuts to grocery stores and big-box retailers. Krispy Kreme has a 30.6 percent share of the U.S. doughnut market. The 67-year-old chain includes 394 stores in the U.S., Australia, Canada, Mexico and U.K. and Legg Mason analysts estimates it could have as many as 800 U.S. stores before saturation. Some more sweet facts on Krispy Kreme:

$989.7 million in annual sales for 2004

10.2% Companywide same-store sales increase for fiscal 2004

North Carolina The state has one Krispy Kreme store for every 400,000 inhabitants

2000: Year Krispy Kreme went public

$4,000 per sq. ft. Annual sales at Krispy Kreme's Harrod's location in London

South Korea, Japan, China: International markets Krispy Kreme is considering for further expansion

7.5 million doughnuts produced each day

$6 billion U.S. doughnut store industry sales by 2007

60% of stores are franchises


Forget “soccer moms,” “NASCAR dads” are the hot new demographic. Established in 1946, NASCAR — the National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing — boasts a fan base of 75 million, or one-third of the adult population of the U.S. According to Nielsen Media Research, the Daytona 500 — NASCAR's biggest event of the year — aired in more than 11.5 million U.S. homes, up almost 10 percent from 2003. And 60 percent of NASCAR fans are male. Thirty-five percent are in the $50,000 to $100,000 household income bracket and 32 percent are aged between 18 and 34. RED Development has taken notice. It's building a $130 million retail center called The Legends at Village West near the NASCAR speedway in Kansas City, Kan., for a spring 2005 opening.

NASCAR Fan Profile

Purchase characteristics typical of NASCAR fans. (Men age 35 to 49, with household income between $50,000 and $100,000.)

Own a car 96%
Have a desktop computer at home 95%
Have a credit card in their name 78%
Drank domestic beer in the past six months 49%
Watch pro football on TV at least once a month 46%
Own an electric cordless drill 44%
Have a video game system at home 44%
Own a fishing rod 41%
Own a pickup truck 40%
Own a recliner 37%
Source: Mediamark Research Inc.; American Demographics


Miami Mall Foot Traffic Counts

Aventura Mall A+ 12,000,000
Bal Harbour Shops C+ 2,000,000
Bayside Marketplace C 4,900,000
Broward Mall B 9,500,000
Coco Walk B 6,000,000
Dadeland Mall A+ 13,000,000
Dolphin Mall A 11,000,000
Miami International Mall B 10,000,000
Sawgrass Mills A 12,000,000
Shops at Sunset Place C+ 6,500,000
Southland Mall (formerly Cutler Ridge) C+ 7,200,000
Streets of Mayfair C 5,500,000
The Falls B- 9,500,000
Village of Merrick Park C+ 7,200,000
Westland Mall C 12,000,000

Quantity may or may not mean quality when counting shoppers in Miami. Quantity definitely means quality in Aventura and Dadeland Malls. The most affluent shopper is found at Bal Harbour Shops, even though this center doesn't have high foot traffic. Dadeland Mall's numbers will only improve with the addition of Nordstrom. Sawgrass Mills and Dolphin Mall are high-energy locales, typical of centers with an off-price/entertainment bent.


$4.5 billionCVS and Jean Coutu buy Eckerd from J.C. Penney

$2.5 billion
Albertsons buys Shaw's, Star Market chains

$2.3 billion
DDR buys 18.8 million sq. ft. from Benderson

$890 million
Leonard Green & Partners buys Hollywood Video chain

$766 million
General Growth buys Las Vegas' Grand Canal Shoppes

$201 million
CIM Group buys Hollywood & Highland complex from Trizec

$197 million
Office Depot buys 124 former Kids R Us stores

$160 million
Foot Locker buys 350 Footaction stores

$102.5 million
CBL buys Chesapeake, Va.'s Greenbrier Mall

$97 million
Federal Realty buys San Jose, Calif.'s Westgate Mall


The retail store base is expected to grow by 3 percent this year, up from a 2.4 percent growth rate in 2003, according to an analysis of 230 retailers. The open-air sector (including neighborhood, community and power centers) is expected to see continued solid demand, with an estimated 4.8 percent increase in stores. Malls and lifestyle centers won't be as lucky. Tenants that traditionally occupy these more upscale centers aren't expected to add stores in 2004.

Store Growth By Retail Category

Category 2001% 2002% 2003% 2004E%
Apparel 8.60 4.20 0.70 4.00
Books -3.10 0.40 -1.90 0.20
Department Stores -1.10 1.20 1.40 0.30
Discounters 7.50 6.60 5.00 7.80
Drugstores 1.50 1.30 3.40 1.70
Entertainment Software -0.60 1.00 4.00 2.50
Footwear -0.90 -0.70 -1.10 -0.90
Grocery 2.90 -2.40 0.50 -0.40
Home Electronics 3.00 -0.10 -1.20 0.40
Home Furnishings 17.70 11.40 12.20 9.60
Home Improvement 16.40 14.60 7.40 7.50
Jewelry 0.80 1.00 -1.00 -0.10
Off-Price 7.50 5.30 5.20 3.90
Toys 0.80 -2.80 -11.70 -24.20
Warehouse Clubs 8.20 6.0 3.80 5.10
Other 3.70 3.70 2.70 2.70
Total 4.40 2.90 2.40 3.00
Mall/ Lifestyle 3.80 1.80 -0.10 0.00
Open-Air (excluding lifestyle retailers) 4.90 3.70 4.00 4.80
Source: Independent Retail Research; Smith Barney
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